NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has officially entered its fifth year on Monday after four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has surged approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low of October 12, 2022. That session’s close was at 3,577.03, marking its lowest since November 2020. By last Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% increase for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This latest rally is the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record, and notably, it is the seventh to sustain itself for at least four years. While the 119% rise is substantial, it falls short of the 184% average gain observed across the studied bull markets. For comparison, the 2009-to-2020 cycle increased by 401%, and the period from 1987 to 2000 saw a 582% rise. These earlier phases remain among the most robust long-term market rallies in the data.
Historical performances during a fifth year generally tend to be positive, although outcomes differ across individual cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their four-year anniversary. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Past data also indicates an average maximum decline of about 14% during these fifth years. However, these figures reflect past market behavior and do not predict the current cycle’s trajectory.
Corporate earnings continue to support the market’s upward trend
Earnings growth remains a key driver behind the ongoing market rally. FactSet reported that third-quarter S&P 500 profits as of October 9 were 29.6% higher than the same period last year. This marks the third straight quarter with earnings increasing by more than 25%. At the end of September, estimates predicted a 29.2% growth for the quarter. Among 19 index companies that have reported results, 84% beat analysts’ average earnings projections, with their combined earnings surpassing estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts also anticipate robust profit growth through the end of 2026. Projections for the fourth quarter show a 27.6% rise in S&P 500 earnings compared to a year earlier, while full-year earnings are expected to grow by 32.4%. Approximately 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributed to semiconductor and hardware firms. A Barclays study further revealed that these companies are responsible for about 75% of the revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, emphasizing that technology-related businesses continue to dominate earnings adjustments.
Interest rate hikes accompany the fifth-year milestone
The ongoing rally occurs amid rising interest rates and elevated yields on U.S. government bonds. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%. Fed officials indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, despite inflation remaining high. The September forecasts set the median economic growth for 2026 at 2.3%, with unemployment projected at 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.60%. Despite these high yields, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% on that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.6%. U.S. equities are now entering their fifth year near all-time highs, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.